Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping labor markets and sparking political debates. Like economic globalization, AI promises benefits—job creation and lower prices—but also imposes costs such as job displacement. This research asks whether AI will trigger the same kinds of backlash as globalization by examining how people weigh the trade-offs between job outcomes and price changes.
Several prominent studies predict that expanding licit markets in areas with weak state capacity reduce organized crime through an opportunity-cost mechanism: booms in legitimate jobs and income draw labor away from illicit markets. This study proposes an additional channel—an influx of capital from market growth enables industry actors to finance self-defense forces that deter criminal incursions—and tests that vigilante mechanism in the Mexican avocado sector.
This replication package accompanies an article that asks whether recent across-the-board and country- and sector-specific tariffs introduced in the second Trump administration spell the end of the liberal international trading system. The authors argue against the view that the regime is collapsing, characterizing US trade policy historically as "eclectic"—a mix of protectionist and liberal impulses—and framing the system as resilient and adaptable despite unprecedented recent actions. The replication materials support the article’s historical and comparative claims about continuity and change in US trade policy.
This study asks how cross-border labor migration changes migrants’ redistribution preferences, comparing migrants themselves to their left-behind family members. Using a randomized intervention that facilitated labor migration from India to the Middle East, the authors test whether moving alters support for taxation and redistribution and explore mechanisms tied to economic gains, self-reliance, and expectations of upward mobility.
Existing research holds that socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals avoid information that highlights risk. An alternative expectation is proposed: when risks from global economic shocks become salient, some disadvantaged people—especially internal migrants—may be more motivated to learn about the distributional effects of those shocks.
This paper tests Margaret Canovan’s influential argument that populism emerges from a tension between what she called democracy’s pragmatic and redemptive faces. Using cross-national survey evidence, the authors evaluate whether indicators of pragmatic politics reduce (or increase) support for populist parties and movements, offering one of the first empirical assessments of Canovan’s theoretical claim.
This article asks whether Western democracies still possess the domestic political support needed to sustain liberal internationalism. Using cross‑national data on 24 industrialized democracies and hundreds of parties, the authors trace trends since the end of the Cold War and document a widening gap between governments' international ambitions and domestic party-level capacity to back them. They argue mainstream pro‑integration parties have lost ground to both radical-left and anti‑globalist radical‑right parties, and they consider what this means for the liberal international order.
This research asks whether moving local production abroad (offshoring) affects electoral outcomes for incumbent government parties. Using a difference-in-differences approach and an original Spanish survey, the author studies municipalities where a local plant relocated production abroad and compares electoral outcomes to municipalities without such events. The paper's central contribution is evidence that voters punish incumbent government parties in places that experienced offshoring, with larger vote declines where more jobs were lost and distinct patterns in coalition governments.
This study investigates the impact of economic globalization (specifically trade flows) and technological change (automation) on voting behavior across 15 Western European democracies from 1990 to 2018. It finds that increased international trade strengthens support for right-wing populist parties, while automation boosts backing for extreme right parties. The abstract highlights three key findings:
States often face pressure from globalization to lower legal labor protections, yet rarely engage in a politically costly race to the bottom. A different path is proposed: concluding preferential trade agreements (PTAs) that deliver substantial economic gains while avoiding the domestic costs of rolling back labor law.
Reexamines the connection between war and state-making by comparing two prominent modes of war finance: taxation and foreign borrowing. Financing war with taxes strengthens the state's ability to assess wealth and monitor compliance—core elements of fiscal capacity—and encourages the adoption of power-sharing institutions that make taxation a non-zero-sum bargain, extending war’s institutional effects into the long run. By contrast, financing war with external capital can fail to produce lasting fiscal capacity when borrowers interrupt debt service and default settlements result in war debt being condoned or swapped for nontax revenue.