📌 What Existing Research Says and What This Study Adds

Several prominent studies predict that expanding licit markets in areas with weak state capacity reduce organized crime through an opportunity-cost mechanism: booms in legitimate jobs and income draw labor away from illicit markets. This study proposes an additional channel—an influx of capital from market growth enables industry actors to finance self-defense forces that deter criminal incursions—and tests that vigilante mechanism in the Mexican avocado sector.

📊 How the Avocado Industry Was Studied

A staggered difference-in-differences research design compares areas affected by trade liberalization in the avocado industry across the 2010s to other violence-prone areas. The analysis focuses on cartel-related homicides as the primary outcome and leverages temporal and spatial variation in trade exposure created by liberalization trends during the decade.

🔍 Key Findings

• Trade liberalization throughout the 2010s is associated with a significant decrease in cartel-related homicides in avocado-producing areas compared to other violence-prone regions.
• Qualitative evidence documents the emergence of self-defense groups and other industry-backed protective measures that appear aimed at deterring criminal actors in the avocado supply chain.
• These qualitative patterns bolster the proposed vigilante mechanism—capital from market expansion enabling private investment in defense—while complementing the opportunity-cost explanation offered by prior work.

💡 Why This Matters

The results broaden understanding of how trade liberalization affects organized crime by demonstrating a novel, empirically supported pathway: market-driven capital can empower local actors to finance defensive (often vigilante) responses that reduce cartel violence. Using the avocado industry as a unique empirical case provides concrete evidence that economic opening can reshape local conflict dynamics through both labor-market shifts and private security investments.