Offshore, Lose Seats: Globalization Pressures Impact Election Outcomes

How Offshoring Affects Voters

The movement of manufacturing jobs abroad raises questions about its political impact.

Voter Response to Job Losses:

• Incumbent parties often lose support when local plants move production overseas between elections.
• This effect is consistent across different election types (national and regional) and time periods.

Research Design & Methods

The study employs a difference-in-differences approach comparing affected municipalities to unaffected ones.

Researchers also conducted an original survey in Spain.

Key Findings

Electoral outcomes reflect voter discontent with offshoring:

• Incumbent vote shares decrease as job losses due to offshoring increase locally.
• In multiparty systems, voters disproportionately penalize the leading coalition party for such actions.

Political Significance

Offshoring emerges as a significant factor in retrospective voting calculations across democratic contexts.