Time Series Analysis

This article asks how authoritarian regimes change repression strategies as economic growth coincides with rising opposition, using Taiwan’s KMT rule during 1949–1988 as a historical case. The author analyses the relationship among economic development, social movements, and repression tactics, arguing that growth encourages a move from indiscriminate mass violence to more targeted, less severe forms of coercion. The claim is developed with historical documents and statistical modelling over a 39-year time series.

How does asset mobility affect the provision of property rights, and whose preferences matter? This research note develops a formal model that highlights how owners of more mobile assets may have weaker incentives for property‑rights enforcement, and how asset mobility can alter competitive dynamics among heterogeneous firms. Amy Pond evaluates these model implications using survey data from business executives in Latin America and cross‑national, time‑series evidence on firm profits, aiming to reconcile literatures on firm heterogeneity and property‑rights development.

Does government treatment of religion affect intergroup religious violence in Western democracies? This study asks whether government-based religious discrimination against minorities and government support for majority religion influence religiously motivated societal violence involving Muslim minorities.

The study reveals how the COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected voter behavior and turnout in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

This paper examines whether mixing different orders of integration on the left- and right-hand sides of a balanced time-series equation prevents researchers from identifying a true relationship. Building on prior work about equation balance, the authors focus on consequences for type II error when using general error correction/autoregressive distributed lag (GECM/ADL) models and consider both the asymptotic case and finite-sample behavior. Their analysis combines theoretical results and simulations to show how model selection and standard assumption checks affect practical inference.

Following Burundi's 2015 political crisis, donors imposed economic sanctions and suspended all budget support to the national government. The conventional expectation is that removing donor budget support will force painful spending cuts and political concessions by making fiscal commitments untenable. This article argues that this expectation is overly simplistic because governments can use fiscal levers other than aid to preserve spending.

Does high public approval correlate with increased presidential unilateral action? This research examines whether political sentiment constrains or encourages executive orders. Conventional wisdom suggests that presidents rely on unilateral power when unpopular; we find the opposite is true.

Social scientists often need time-varying joint distributions—for example, to construct poststratification weights—but population data across time are typically sparse, irregular, and noisy. When different variables are observed on different schedules or only margins (not full joint distributions) are available, survey weights are frequently limited to the small subset of auxiliary variables with regularly observed joint data, leaving other useful information unused.

A novel procedure uses the advertising option on Facebook to sample party activists across countries and over time. This approach targets different parties via ads, allows quota controls, and collects large samples at relatively low cost—making it possible to improve representativeness through poststratification and to check robustness with subsamples.

This article argues that economic sanctions often undermine democracy in targeted states. Economic hardship produced by sanctions can be leveraged by incumbent leaders to consolidate authoritarian rule, weaken opposition forces, and justify restrictions on political liberties by portraying sanctions as an external threat to regime survival.