Multilevel Modeling

This paper develops and provides software for a class of spatial hierarchical (multilevel) models for binary outcomes, motivated by situations where outcome dependence arises both from diffusion among lower-level units and from spatially structured unobserved group effects. The authors propose two model variants—one that treats unobserved group effects as spatially independent and another that treats them as spatially dependent—and use a Bayesian estimation approach. They evaluate performance with Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate the approach by analyzing causes of civil rights protests in the United States in the 1960s.

Presents a Bayesian alternative to the synthetic control method for comparative case studies with one or multiple treated units. Adopts a Bayesian posterior predictive approach to Rubin's causal model, which yields empirical posterior distributions for counterfactuals and enables inference about both individual and average treatment effects on treated observations.

This article explores state-level racial resentment dynamics using data from 1988 to 2016. Researchers developed novel scores representing racial resentment at each US state level, employing multilevel regression and survey weighting techniques with nationally representative surveys linked to Census information.

Labor market competition theories explaining anti-immigrant attitudes have received limited empirical validation in recent literature. Rather than focusing on migrant supply, this research proposes a new theory centered on job availability and skill specificity.

SRP is a new procedure for estimating local-area public opinion that generalizes classical multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP). It replaces a single parametric first-stage model with a diverse ensemble of predictive algorithms to improve the cross-validated fit of first-stage predictions.

Comprehensive Trade Agreements (CTAs) — a new generation of free trade deals — challenge traditional models of trade preferences. This research identifies citizens' trust in government as a key predictor of Members of the European Parliament (MEP) support for CTAs and presents a unified framework that combines economic and noneconomic factors to explain trade preferences.