This study asks whether foreign direct investment (FDI) entering countries after civil conflict helps economic recovery and, through that recovery, reduces the chance of conflict recurring. Using country-level intrastate conflict data spanning 1970–2019, the authors estimate mediation models that link post-conflict FDI to economic reconstruction and then to subsequent conflict risk, and they provide replication files for their analysis.
This paper asks how to measure bilateral (dyadic) trade dependence in a contemporary world economy characterized by intensive intermediate goods trade and changing availability of partners and substitutes. The authors construct measures from structural-gravity models that quantify (1) how much trade interruptions reduce a country’s welfare and (2) how much additional trade from existing partners would be required to compensate. The brief summarizes the research question, the measurement approach, and the paper’s reported comparisons with traditional aggregate measures.
In October 2010 the Andhra Pradesh state government issued an emergency ordinance that halted microfinance activity in the state, creating a nationwide liquidity shock for lenders—especially those with loans concentrated in the affected districts. This policy-induced dislocation is used as a plausibly exogenous shock to identify the causal effects of reduced credit supply on consumption, earnings, and employment in rural labor markets in general equilibrium.
Recent shifts in voter behavior and evolving campaign strategies have fueled doubts about traditional structural forecasting models. These models rely on fundamental variables like demographics, historical voting patterns, and socioeconomic factors to predict election outcomes months ahead of the actual vote.