This article asks how authoritarian regimes change repression strategies as economic growth coincides with rising opposition, using Taiwan’s KMT rule during 1949–1988 as a historical case. The author analyses the relationship among economic development, social movements, and repression tactics, arguing that growth encourages a move from indiscriminate mass violence to more targeted, less severe forms of coercion. The claim is developed with historical documents and statistical modelling over a 39-year time series.
Key measurement: economic development, social movements, repression patterns. Method: additive dynamic linear model on 1949–1988 time series. Case: Taiwan under Kuomintang (KMT) rule.
Data and methods
The study draws on historical documents and time-series data covering 1949–1988, and applies an additive dynamic linear model (ADLM) to examine how repression strategies vary with economic development and opposition activity. The abstract explicitly describes using statistical analysis of a 39-year time series to link the variables.
Main findings
According to the abstract, the analysis suggests that economic development, when accompanied by rising social movements, is associated with a shift away from indiscriminate, large-scale violence toward more selective, targeted repression. The author notes this strategy may temporarily strengthen control but could weaken long-term authoritarian resilience.
- With growth and increasing opposition, repression becomes more targeted rather than mass killing.
- The adaptation may stabilize a regime in the short run but potentially undermines long-run resilience.
