Article summary
The 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle offers a compelling case study in the complex interplay between economic conditions and voter behavior, particularly through the lens of political economy models.
The 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle offers a compelling case study in the complex interplay between economic conditions and voter behavior, particularly through the lens of political economy models.
New research reveals a simple predictive model using state-level presidential approval and economic conditions accurately forecasted the winner of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Using readily available data on presidential approval ratings and state unemployment rates, this study demonstrates how these variables alone can anticipate electoral outcomes with remarkable accuracy.
Introduction: What happens when ordinary citizens try to predict election outcomes based on their own knowledge and beliefs? This study investigates citizen forecasting, an emerging phenomenon in the 2020 U.S. elections.