This study challenges the common belief that primary voters are ideologically extreme and cause party polarization.
Using administrative records from primaries combined with survey data collected between 2008-14, we find something surprising: Primary electors share similar demographic profiles and policy views as regular rank-and-file members of their parties. Importantly, these similarities remain consistent regardless of whether the primary system is open or closed.
🔍 Data & Methods: Survey responses from five data sets (2008-14) alongside administrative records on primary turnout patterns were analyzed using regression models and descriptive statistics to compare voter characteristics across party groups.
📊 Key Findings: Primary voters mirror the broader party membership in terms of demographics and policy preferences. This suggests that ideological sorting happens at all levels, not just through primaries.
🤔 Why It Matters? The results call into question the mechanisms behind political polarization. If primary electors are similar to regular voters, then other factors may be driving polarization effects observed in government decisions.
