Politicians can constrain criminal violence by setting police enforcement levels, but cartels can exploit this by bribing officials. Cartels only escalate their use of violence after successfully bribing political leaders, suggesting that local violence spikes with increased political tenure post-election due to uncertainty about corruption.

Research Context

Following elections in Mexico, where politicians influence police enforcement but face bribery risks from cartels, the balance shifts. Cartel uncertainty about corruptibility means not every bribe succeeds.

Key Findings

Analysis of homicide and political tenure data reveals a clear link: homicides increase significantly after each election as parties gain longer tenures without successful bribes being detected or implemented initially.

The study finds that Mexico experiences roughly 950 additional homicides annually for every year increased political tenure occurs post-election. This pattern suggests that the process of learning about corrupt politicians and adjusting enforcement creates a temporary spike in violence.