Economic stress raises questions about voter turnout. This study uses large datasets and a survey experiment to find that while unemployment depresses participation overall, it has different psychological effects depending on the national job market.
Context Matters:
- Campaign messages blaming incumbents for low unemployment disproportionately affect unemployed voters when the actual rate is low. Messages ignoring high rates leave these voters unmotivated.
- When the national unemployment rate was low:
- Blaming campaigns triggered anger among unemployed individuals.
- Anger, viewed as a mobilizing emotion in political science, significantly increased turnout.
- When the national unemployment rate was high:
- Campaigns largely ignored the issue.
- The lack of blame or attention meant unemployed voters felt depressed and self-blame, leading to decreased participation.
This research highlights psychological mechanisms (anger vs. depression) as key drivers behind observed turnout patterns among those facing joblessness.
