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Insights from the Field

Why Do Unemployed Voters Get Angrier When Rates Are Lower?


opportunity costs
anger politics
survey experiment
descriptive representation
Voting and Elections
BJPS
6 R files
2 Stata files
5 datasets
Dataverse
Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger, and Turnout Among the Unemployed was authored by S. Erdem Aytaç, Eli Gavin Rau and Susan Stokes. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2020.

Economic stress raises questions about voter turnout. This study uses large datasets and a survey experiment to find that while unemployment depresses participation overall, it has different psychological effects depending on the national job market.

Context Matters:

* Campaign messages blaming incumbents for low unemployment disproportionately affect unemployed voters when the actual rate is low. Messages ignoring high rates leave these voters unmotivated.

* When the national unemployment rate was low:

* Blaming campaigns triggered anger among unemployed individuals.

* Anger, viewed as a mobilizing emotion in political science, significantly increased turnout.

* When the national unemployment rate was high:

* Campaigns largely ignored the issue.

* The lack of blame or attention meant unemployed voters felt depressed and self-blame, leading to decreased participation.

This research highlights psychological mechanisms (anger vs. depression) as key drivers behind observed turnout patterns among those facing joblessness.

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British Journal of Political Science
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