Economic stress raises questions about voter turnout. This study uses large datasets and a survey experiment to find that while unemployment depresses participation overall, it has different psychological effects depending on the national job market.
Context Matters:
* Campaign messages blaming incumbents for low unemployment disproportionately affect unemployed voters when the actual rate is low. Messages ignoring high rates leave these voters unmotivated.
* When the national unemployment rate was low:
* Blaming campaigns triggered anger among unemployed individuals.
* Anger, viewed as a mobilizing emotion in political science, significantly increased turnout.
* When the national unemployment rate was high:
* Campaigns largely ignored the issue.
* The lack of blame or attention meant unemployed voters felt depressed and self-blame, leading to decreased participation.
This research highlights psychological mechanisms (anger vs. depression) as key drivers behind observed turnout patterns among those facing joblessness.
| Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger, and Turnout Among the Unemployed was authored by S. Erdem Aytaç, Eli Gavin Rau and Susan Stokes. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2020. |
