Electoral defeats of centrist-liberal parties like Germany's FDP (2013) and the UK Liberal Democrats highlight a puzzle: why do these parties struggle despite voter preferences clustering? Using survey data from Canada, Finland, Germany, and the UK, this study shows that when centrists' valence image worsens—meaning their electability perception drops—they lose significant votes. Importantly, unlike other parties that can adjust platforms strategically to maintain appeal or regain support, centrist parties face constraints due to their fixed ideological positions. Mathematical simulations reveal these limitations hinder recovery despite the empty center phenomenon suggesting potential strategic opportunities don't exist for them.
📊 Data & Methods: Surveys from four countries (Canada, Finland, Germany, UK), mathematical models
📉 Key Findings: Centrists lose votes after valence decline; they can't strategically shift platforms to compensate
🔍 Why It Matters: These findings challenge assumptions about party adaptability and clarify constraints on centrist electoral strategies.
