New survey data reveals that local party leaders—especially Republicans—are more likely to support extreme candidates than centrists. This challenges conventional wisdom about primary elections reducing elite polarization.
Background and Data
Researchers surveyed 1,118 county-level political figures across the United States.
* Explored how much party leaders prioritize electability versus ideological similarity
* Tested assumptions about their candidate selection strategies in primaries vs. general elections
Key Findings
Contrary to predictions that leaders favor centrists for electoral success, results show:
* Leaders most prefer candidates similar to themselves or typical co-partisans
* Democratic leaders (2:1) and Republican leaders (10:1) strongly favored extremists when given choices
* Republicans especially believed extremists could win general elections while overestimating voter conservatism by double digits
Implications for Political Science
These findings suggest primary election reforms to increase local leader influence may unintentionally worsen partisan polarization. Understanding candidate selection preferences is crucial for analyzing US electoral politics and party dynamics.
| Why Local Party Leaders Don't Support Nominating Centrists was authored by David Broockman, Nicholas Carnes, Melody Crowder-Meyer and Chris Skovron. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2021. |
