Civil wars are a greater source of violence than any other type of conflict. Yet, little is known about one key determinant of civil war peace settlement success—civilian support—and how leader endorsements play a role.
Our research examines this through an experiment conducted in South Sudan during the 2016 pause in its devastating civil war. We investigated whether public trust and support for peace settlements change based on who endorses them: an outgroup or ingroup leader.
The core finding is that civilians distrust peace deals endorsed by outgroup leaders, leading to significantly lower support levels—a stark contrast with what happens when an ingroup leader offers the same endorsement.
Why It Matters
Evidence suggests these effects are strongest for communities most threatened. Those whose neighborhoods suffered intense violence against their group expressed fear when seeing outgroup endorsements, further diminishing their trust and backing.
