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LDV Misconception Corrected: Include More Lags
Insights from the Field
lagged dependent variables
regression models
autocorrelation
monte carlo simulation
Methodology
PSR&M
1 R files
2 text files
Dataverse
To Lag or Not to Lag? Re-evaluating the Use of Lagged Dependent Variables in Regression Analysis was authored by Arjun Wilkins. It was published by Cambridge in PSR&M in 2018.

Lagged dependent variables (LDVs) are commonly used in regression analysis, yet some research argues against them due to potential bias.

➡️ The Problem: Previous studies suggested LDVs negatively bias coefficient estimates if they're part of the data-generating process.

➡️ New Approach: This paper demonstrates that properly accounting for autocorrelation—by including more lagged dependent variables or other lags—actually improves accuracy.

➡️ Simulation Results: Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show this method yields significantly better estimates than alternatives.

➡️ Recommendation: LDVs should be included confidently in robust estimation strategies to avoid bias.

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Political Science Research & Methods
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