This paper examines voting behavior in California's Proposition 23, which aimed to repeal climate change legislation. While studies suggest people use party leader or candidate image heuristics for ballot decisions, the impact among knowledgeable versus less knowledgeable voters remains debated.

Context & Rival Hypotheses:

Ballot initiatives are common mechanisms for addressing political issues in California.

Two main theories exist:

Analysts argue effects are heterogeneous: stronger for those with lower knowledge*

Experimental research suggests heuristics impact knowledgeable voters more strongly*

Key Findings (Prop 23 Repeal):

Survey data reveals a clear pattern: candidate image influences were significantly stronger among highly knowledgeable Californians.

This contradicts the assumption that less informed voters are most swayed by simple decision rules.

More politically engaged individuals appear more sophisticated in their use of such heuristics.

Why It Matters:

These results highlight crucial limitations in standard survey experiments and traditional polling methods when analyzing ballot initiative voting behavior. They challenge simplistic assumptions about how citizens make complex policy decisions, particularly regarding environmental issues.