Spatial/spatiotemporal interdependence matters in binary outcomes like civil war, but estimating it is hard. This paper explains the challenges and introduces a new method: maximum simulated likelihood via recursive importance sampling. It compares this approach to naive estimation strategies and shows how to calculate spatial effects on probabilities of outcomes.
New Method: Maximum Simulated Likelihood with Recursive Importance Sampling
- Addresses complex interdependence structures directly
- Provides consistent, asymptotically efficient estimates
- Overcomes limitations of traditional approaches
Civil War Application in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Demonstrates practical relevance for spatial econometrics
- Illustrates effects on conflict probabilities
- Shows how to interpret substantive implications from models
