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Insights from the Field

Neurotics Avoid Ideological Questions Due to Error Aversion


Bayesian Hierarchy
Neuroticism Avoidance
CCES Survey
Ideological Uncertainty
Methodology
PSR&M
23 R files
28 other files
23 text files
1 datasets
14 HTML files
Dataverse
Don't Know What You Got: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Neuroticism and Nonresponse was authored by Jonathan D. Klingler, Gary E. Hollibaugh and Adam J. Ramey. It was published by Cambridge in PSR&M in 2018.

Surveys and Nonresponse: Survey nonresponse often occurs when individuals refuse to answer questions. This is especially true for politically sensitive topics, such as placing politicians on an ideological scale.

The Problem: Why do people not respond? We suggest it might be related to their personality traits, specifically neuroticism — a tendency toward negative emotions and sensitivity to stress.

* Individuals high in neuroticism are more prone to anxiety about potential errors or negative evaluations when responding to survey questions.

* They may avoid forming opinions on stimuli (like political ideologies) due to this apprehension.

Our Findings: Using data from the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we demonstrate that:

* Neuroticism is strongly linked to increased NA/DK responses when rating politicians' ideologies. Higher neuroticism means more uncertainty in answers.

The New Model: We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model for political science research. This statistical approach allows us to disentangle nonresponse caused by lack of information from that resulting from disincentives (like fear of error).

* The model helps identify the underlying reasons driving survey responses or their absence.

Implications: Our analysis shows these NA/DK answers are likely reflecting inhibited information gathering and decision-making processes among highly neurotic respondents, rather than simply a lack of knowledge.

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