How do authoritarian elites select political candidates? Using a conjoint experiment with over 300 Chinese officials, this study investigates entry-level selection logic.
Conjoint Experiment Design: Surveying >300 Chinese government officials to understand their candidate preferences.
The analysis reveals that while elites nominally follow institutional norms favoring competence and loyalty, they actually prioritize political kinship ties significantly more. Candidates connected through kinship with the government have a 20+ percentage point higher chance of selection regardless of demonstrated competence or loyalty.
Why It Matters: This finding suggests an agency problem in Chinese authoritarian politics. Elite preferences for nepotism appear inconsistent with long-term regime survival goals, potentially undermining governance effectiveness over time.
