🔎 The Question: Does supporting a minority cabinet hurt a party’s electoral prospects? Existing work suggests support parties can influence policy while avoiding the electoral costs of joining government. This argument is qualified: it holds only for support parties without written, formal agreements because informal support is less visible to voters.

📊 New Comparative Evidence:

• A novel dataset tracks 563 parties across 304 national elections in 31 countries since 1980.
• The analysis estimates the effect of being a support party on subsequent electoral performance using this cross-national observational design.

🔍 Key Findings:

• Parties that provide declared, informal support to minority cabinets perform better electorally than junior coalition partners.
• Support parties that enter formal, written contracts do not enjoy this electoral advantage.
• The visibility of support arrangements to voters is identified as the key mechanism explaining these differences.

📈 Why It Matters:

• These results clarify and qualify prior claims that support parties occupy a politically advantageous sweet spot: the advantage depends on whether support is formalized and visible.
• Findings speak to how growing party system fragmentation and the rising frequency of minority governments reshape electoral competition and strategic choices by smaller parties.