Democracy in Latin America faces mounting strain from rising polarization. Earlier research argued that electoral volatility pushes parties toward polarizing survival strategies. This study reevaluates that claim with a more focused empirical test and an extended theory of party behavior.

📊 Scope and Design (18 countries, 1992–2018):

• A comparative empirical test covering 18 Latin American countries from 1992 to 2018.
• Explicit focus on decomposing electoral volatility into components, especially the vote share captured by newly formed parties versus total volatility.
• Addresses limitations in prior work by specifying how different types of volatility should differently affect party positioning and polarization.

🔎 Key Findings: What the Data Shows

• Results partly diverge from earlier studies: increases in the vote share for new parties are associated with greater party system polarization.
• Total electoral volatility, however, does not predict higher polarization in the same way.
• Theoretical extension explains these patterns: newcomers either (a) place themselves at the ideological fringes, or (b) provoke established parties to differentiate by moving toward extremes.
• These dynamics reflect an ongoing difficulty for party systems in the region to institutionalize stable patterns of competition.

🧭 Why It Matters: Implications for Democratic Stability

• Polarization fueled by the rise of new parties presents distinct risks for democratic consolidation compared with general turnover in vote shares.
• Understanding whether polarization stems from new entrants versus broad volatility matters for predicting party strategy and for designing institutional responses to preserve democratic stability.