🔎 Evidence from Paraguay’s Municipal Records (2000–2014):

This study challenges the common view that low agricultural prices drive peasant unrest by documenting a surge in peasant resistance during a period of relatively high—and at times volatile—crop prices in Paraguay. The analysis uses unique municipal-level data covering 2000–2014 to link market conditions, technological change, and land conflicts.

🧭 How High Prices Lead to Frontier Expansion and Conflict:

• A shift toward capital-intensive agriculture reduces local labor demand and raises entry barriers for smallholders.
• Facing higher prices, landowners expand production into the agricultural frontier, converting less-suitable soils that become profitable only when prices are high.
• This frontier expansion creates conditions for dispossession and encroachment that spur collective resistance.
• Resistance is amplified where existing organizational capacity and subsistence-based communities supply the symbolic and material resources needed to mobilize.

📈 Key Findings:

• High agricultural prices are associated with increased landowner expansion into frontier areas.
• Expansion into frontier lands predicts higher levels of peasant unrest during the 2000–2014 period.
• The link between price-driven expansion and resistance is strongest in municipalities with stronger peasant organizations and subsistence communities.
• The results highlight that technological shifts in agriculture, interacting with global market forces, alter the geographic pattern of peasant rebellion—making frontier regions a new hotspot for conflict even in times of overall agricultural affluence.

💡 Why It Matters:

These findings invert a standard expectation about the economics of rebellion and show that prosperity in commodity markets can produce new social tensions when combined with mechanization and frontier expansion. The study informs debates about land policy, rural development, and how market-driven agricultural change reshapes opportunities for collective action.