This article examines how comparative politics scholars evaluate structural reforms using counterfactual analysis. The piece focuses on the UK National Minimum Wage as a case study.
Data & Methods
- Generalized Synthetic Control Method (GSCM)
Key Findings
- A short-term decrease in youth unemployment following the introduction of the minimum wage
- An increase in long-term youth unemployment relative to counterfactual expectations
- Presence of an upward-biased selection effect due to strategic timing of reform implementation
Why It Matters
- The findings highlight the importance of carefully considering post-treatment trajectories in comparative studies
- Demonstrates how seemingly positive reforms can have unintended negative consequences over time
- Suggests that nuanced understanding requires attention to context and potential intervening factors specific to different countries or regions
