This article examines how comparative politics scholars evaluate structural reforms using counterfactual analysis. The piece focuses on the UK National Minimum Wage as a case study.

Data & Methods

• Generalized Synthetic Control Method (GSCM)

Key Findings

• A short-term decrease in youth unemployment following the introduction of the minimum wage
• An increase in long-term youth unemployment relative to counterfactual expectations
• Presence of an upward-biased selection effect due to strategic timing of reform implementation

Why It Matters

• The findings highlight the importance of carefully considering post-treatment trajectories in comparative studies
• Demonstrates how seemingly positive reforms can have unintended negative consequences over time
• Suggests that nuanced understanding requires attention to context and potential intervening factors specific to different countries or regions