The relationship between economic development and democracy is complex, but this paper offers causal evidence using a novel instrumental variable: potato cultivation in the Old World.

➡️ A New Approach

Traditional studies struggle with reverse causation. This research leverages the timing of potato introduction as exogenous variation to overcome that limitation.

➡️ Our Core Finding

Urbanization, measured through historical potato farming patterns, serves as a reliable proxy for economic development's effect on democratizing outcomes in Europe during specific periods.

➡️ The Data & Methods

We analyze regional variations across Europe from the 16th to early 20th centuries. Our primary analysis uses instrumental variable regression with potato introduction timing as an exclusion-restricted instrument.

➡️ Key Insight

The results demonstrate a statistically robust causal pathway: agricultural productivity shocks → increased urbanization → enhanced democratization probability in European regions over time.

➡️ Why It Matters

This study significantly advances democratic theory by providing empirical backing for the economic development hypothesis—a finding with profound implications for comparative political analysis.