The relationship between economic development and democracy is complex, but this paper offers causal evidence using a novel instrumental variable: potato cultivation in the Old World.
➡️ A New Approach
Traditional studies struggle with reverse causation. This research leverages the timing of potato introduction as exogenous variation to overcome that limitation.
➡️ Our Core Finding
Urbanization, measured through historical potato farming patterns, serves as a reliable proxy for economic development's effect on democratizing outcomes in Europe during specific periods.
➡️ The Data & Methods
We analyze regional variations across Europe from the 16th to early 20th centuries. Our primary analysis uses instrumental variable regression with potato introduction timing as an exclusion-restricted instrument.
➡️ Key Insight
The results demonstrate a statistically robust causal pathway: agricultural productivity shocks → increased urbanization → enhanced democratization probability in European regions over time.
➡️ Why It Matters
This study significantly advances democratic theory by providing empirical backing for the economic development hypothesis—a finding with profound implications for comparative political analysis.
| Endogenous Democracy: Causal Evidence from the Potato Productivity Shock in the Old World was authored by Joan Barcelo and Guillermo Rosas. It was published by Cambridge in PSR&M in 2021. |
