Coups Cut GDP 10–12% Within Five Years

🔎 What Was Estimated

Doubly robust difference-in-differences models are used to estimate the causal effect of successful coups on national income. Real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) falls by 10%–12% five years after a coup, and the effect has not begun to diminish by that point.

📊 How the Effect Was Identified

• The analysis uses doubly robust difference-in-differences models to isolate the causal impact of successful coups on national-level income trajectories.
• Estimates focus on real per capita GDP measured up to five years after coup events.

🧭 What Drives the Decline

The observed GDP decline is largely explained by three mechanisms:

• A fall in investment
• A deterioration in the rule of law
• An increase in repression

💡 Why It Matters

A 10%–12% drop in per capita GDP within five years represents a large development setback. Preventing coups therefore constitutes a meaningful development priority. Although the international community has taken steps to discourage coups, these results suggest further consideration of anticoup policies is warranted.