Plan Fortaleza (Mano Dura), a military policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, was evaluated through an experimental design. We randomly assigned recurring, intensive military patrols at the city block level.
Key Findings
* Despite null or adverse effects on crime and human rights, the program improved citizen attitudes toward the military.
* It also increased citizens' demand for military involvement in domestic law enforcement.
* Crucially, it strengthened support among citizens for extrajudicial punishment and even supported military coups to address rising crime.
Why This Matters
These findings suggest that ineffective security measures can paradoxically increase public acceptance of authoritarian political solutions. The results highlight a potential democratic backsliding risk when interventions fail to deliver on their primary perceived purpose, namely enhanced safety.
Our analysis integrates multiple data sources: official crime and human rights records; survey responses from over 10,000 residents; conjoint experiment results gauging public preferences; behavioral measures assessing costly compliance actions; and qualitative insights from interviews with 49 civil society leaders. This multi-method approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the intervention's impact.
| Mano Dura: an Experimental Evaluation of Military Policing in Cali, Colombia was authored by Robert A. Blair, Lucia Mendoza-Mora and Michael Weintraub. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2025. |
