Indian District Officers Cut 1918 Flu Deaths by 15 Percentage Points

📊 Linking Officials to Mortality Records (1910–1925)

Personnel records were combined with vital-statistics data spanning 1910–1925 to measure mortality outcomes across 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic.

• Data sources: district personnel files and town-level vital statistics for 1910–1925
• Sample: 1,271 towns across British India

🔎 Identification Strategy: Officer Rotation and Cross-Border Comparison

Causal inference leverages the rotation of senior colonial officers across districts and a cross-border comparison between areas led by Indian versus British district officers to isolate the effect of bureaucratic representation on mortality.

• Exploits plausibly exogenous rotations of senior officials across districts
• Adds a cross-border comparison to contrast outcomes under Indian versus British district leadership

📈 Key Findings

Bureaucratic representation substantially altered pandemic outcomes and relief responses.

• Towns headed by Indian (rather than British) district officers experienced 15 percentage points lower deaths
• The mortality reduction extended beyond urban centers into surrounding areas
• The lower mortality coincided with greater responsiveness in relief provision in areas led by Indian officers

⚖️ Why It Matters

The evidence shows that who holds bureaucratic posts can materially change state performance in crises: bureaucratic representation emerged as a powerful mechanism for increasing state responsiveness during the 1918 pandemic, with implications for how administrative staffing shapes public-health and disaster responses.