This paper presents the first systematic investigation of how epidemic shocks affect civil violence across Africa.
📍 High-Resolution Monthly Data Across Africa
- Uses a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1°×1° latitude/longitude covering Africa.
- Analysis exploits exogenous within cell × year variation in environmental conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission.
🧩 Identification: Leveraging Exogenous Malaria Suitability
- Identification depends on variation in suitability for malaria transmission that plausibly acts as an exogenous shock to local epidemic risk.
- Focuses on areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks to isolate the link between epidemic conditions and unrest.
🔑 Key Findings
- Suitable conditions for malaria transmission increase civil violence in susceptible populations.
- The effect is immediate and tied to the acute phase of the epidemic rather than long-term trends.
- Violence increases are largest during short harvesting seasons for subsistence crops, when economic vulnerability is highest.
- Both genetic immunities and antimalaria policies reduce the violence-enhancing effect of epidemic shocks.
🌍 Why It Matters
- Results identify actionable levers for prevention and attenuation policies (for example, antimalaria interventions) that can reduce conflict risk during epidemics.
- Findings also highlight a plausible pathway through which climate-driven changes in disease suitability could affect future patterns of civil violence.
