Citizens' beliefs about uncertain events are central to many political science questions, yet obtaining full subjective probability distributions in surveys is challenging. This letter tests whether reliable distributional measures can be elicited in the context of online surveys.

🔎 How the five elicitation methods were compared

A controlled experimental comparison evaluated five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens' uncertain expectations using online survey instruments. The focus was on recovering full belief distributions rather than single-point estimates.

📊 Key findings

• One method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs consistently well in this context.
• The Manski approach produces reliable estimates of average citizens' subjective belief distributions.
• The method is straightforward to implement within regular online surveys, making it practical for many research designs.
• Compared to four alternative elicitation techniques, the Manski method delivered the most dependable distributional measures in the experimental tests.

⚙️ Why this matters

• Better, practical tools for eliciting belief distributions improve measurement of citizens' expectations across topics of interest to political scientists.
• Wider adoption of a reliable elicitation method can lead to considerable improvements in research on public opinion, forecasting, and behavior under uncertainty.

✳️ Takeaway for survey practitioners

• Implementing the Manski (2009) elicitation in online surveys offers a low-barrier way to capture full subjective probability distributions from respondents, enhancing the study of uncertain expectations without major survey redesigns.