Ethnic divisions in rapidly urbanizing Kenya have long been debated. "First-generation" modernization theories expected urban migration to reduce ethnic identification and improve intergroup trust, while "second-generation" perspectives predicted the opposite.

Our groundbreaking 15-year panel survey of over 8,000 Kenyans provides novel insights by testing these competing hypotheses with real-world data from a major African nation.

Urban Migration's Contrasting Effects

• Ethnic Identification: Migrating to an urban area significantly reduces how much individuals identify with their ethnic group. This effect holds across different demographics and over time.

• Intergroup Trust: Conversely, urban migration leads to decreased trust between ethnic groups.

Less Ethnic Identity, More Suspicion

Individuals who moved from rural areas become less attached to ethnic identity but simultaneously develop greater suspicion about other groups. This dual transformation provides new understanding of how modernization affects social identities and intergroup relations.

The findings advance the literature on urbanization's political impact while offering important implications for policymakers in developing nations experiencing rapid urban growth.