📌 Research Question and Gap

What is the effect of the economy on political trust across Latin America? Previous studies looked at this issue synchronically—using single cross-sections at the individual or aggregate level—and found a citizenry that is often dissatisfied, less tolerant of the political class, and inclined to de-legitimize political institutions. This study takes a longitudinal approach to unpack how objective economic conditions and citizens' economic perceptions jointly shape political trust.

📊 Long-Term Survey Evidence (1996–2013)

• Data source: Latinobarómetro survey series.
• Scope: 18 Latin American countries, covering 1996–2013.
• Design: Longitudinal estimation of the conjoint effect of objective economic conditions (the real economy) and citizens' economic perceptions on trust in political institutions.

🔎 Key Findings

• Economic perceptions and the real economy jointly influence political trust; neither dimension alone fully explains variation in attitudes.
• Citizens’ sociotropic understanding of the economy—evaluating national economic conditions rather than personal circumstances—plays a central role in strengthening the link between citizens and political institutions.
• This reinforcing effect of sociotropic perceptions is especially evident in contexts where the political regime alternates between democratic and authoritarian rule.

💡 Why It Matters

• Provides longitudinal evidence that perceptions about the national economy can buffer or bolster institutional trust even amid regime instability.
• Suggests that public evaluations of the economy matter for political legitimacy in hybrid or volatile regime settings, with implications for scholars studying democratic resilience and for policymakers aiming to maintain institutional trust.

🗂️ Contribution

• Moves beyond synchronic analyses by estimating conjoint perception–reality effects over time across multiple countries, preserving nuance about regime context and public attitudes.