How Russia Quietly Undermined Democracy in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

📌 What This Paper Focuses On

Despite recurring elections and formal multiparty systems, authoritarianism has re-emerged across the Post-Soviet space. Domestic causes matter, but the external dimension is also crucial. Russia is often portrayed as a 'black knight' for democracy; whereas most scholarship centers on the Kremlin's policies in Eastern Europe, this study turns attention to the relatively understudied Southern Caucasus to ask why and how Moscow sought to thwart democratization in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

📊 How Russian Behavior Is Tracked Over Time

• Uses a diachronic analysis that compares Kremlin actions across three distinct periods:
• Yeltsin's presidency
• The first Putin presidency
• The Putin–Medvedev diarchy

🔎 Key Findings

• The Kremlin pursued an increasingly nuanced and intentional "black knight" strategy in the Southern Caucasus.
• This strategy evolved over time rather than remaining static across presidencies.
• The primary aims of Moscow's approach were:
• to secure primacy in the Post-Soviet space, and
• to gain recognition of its great-power status.

💡 Why It Matters

Understanding the re-emergence of authoritarianism in the region requires attention to both internal drivers and Moscow's strategic choices. The evidence here shows that Russian actions in the Southern Caucasus were deliberate and adaptive, highlighting the importance of external influence—beyond domestic politics—in explaining regional democratic backsliding.