Risk and Reform
When citizens face economic uncertainty or government underperformance, a referendum calling for a constitutional convention often gains more support. Conversely, when performance is acceptable, conventions are viewed less favorably.
Our study uses preelection polls in Ohio & Michigan, alongside survey experiments to test how voters' attitudes shift depending on whether they see the convention as an opportunity or threat. Findings reveal:
- Negative economic/government views increase convention support when framed as problem-solving opportunities
- Positive performance evaluations boost support only when conventions represent improvement chances
This confirms Prospect Theory's applicability, while adding new insights into direct democracy dynamics in constitutional reform contexts.
Why It Matters For Political Science
These results help explain the mixed scholarly opinions on public constitutionalism. They highlight how economic conditions interact with voter preferences for fundamental change versus incremental adjustment.
