📌 What This Study Looks At:

Conditional cash transfer programmes are widespread, but the independent role of program conditionalities (attendance and enforcement) on education and health remains debated. This study uses municipal-level data from Brazil’s Bolsa Família programme to test whether monitoring of school attendance—separate from cash-transfer coverage—is associated with better educational outcomes.

📊 Data and Design:

• An ecological (municipality-level) design is used. Coverage of Bolsa Família is treated as a proxy for cash transfers, while monitoring and enforcement of educational conditionalities are treated as a proxy for conditionalities.
• Coverage (proxy for cash transfers) and monitoring (proxy for conditionalities) are not correlated at the municipal level, allowing separate assessment of their associations with outcomes.

🔬 Analytical Approach:

• Ordinary least squares (OLS) and growth-curve models are fitted to explain variation in two outcomes: dropout rates and school progression in basic education in public schools across municipalities.
• Models control for a number of covariates to isolate associations of interest.

📈 Key Findings:

• No significant association is found between Bolsa Família coverage (cash-transfer proxy) and either dropout rates or school progression after controlling for covariates.
• Monitoring of school attendance is negatively associated with dropout rates and positively associated with school progression in OLS models and in the initial-status estimates of growth-curve models.
• The association between attendance monitoring and the rate of change in educational indicators (the slope in growth-curve models) is different and weaker, indicating that attendance monitoring’s positive relationship with outcomes does not translate into a strong effect on the overall trend of convergence observed in recent Brazil.

💡 Why It Matters:

• Results suggest that how conditionalities are monitored and enforced matters more for municipal-level education outcomes than the mere extent of program coverage.
• However, the beneficial association of monitoring is limited: it appears in cross-sectional and initial-status estimates but is not strong enough to alter the broader convergence trend in educational indicators across municipalities in the recent Brazilian context.

🔎 Takeaway:

• Strengthening attendance monitoring/enforcement may yield measurable improvements in dropouts and progression, but expectations should be tempered—monitoring alone does not appear sufficient to change long-term convergence patterns in educational outcomes under current conditions.