🔎 A Theory of Unmet Expectations and Political Blame

Leaders in developing countries often welcome foreign direct investment (FDI) because it is expected to spur economic development and signal competence to voters. A gap can emerge, however, when promised benefits—jobs, growth, and visible improvements—fail to materialize. This research develops a theory in which initial FDI announcements generate optimism that boosts leaders’ reputations, but unmet expectations once projects operate shift blame back onto those leaders.

🗺️ How Chinese Investment and Public Perceptions Were Linked

• Uses 223 georeferenced Chinese FDI projects across Africa.
• Connects those projects to political-economic perceptions reported by 179,278 respondents in continent-wide survey data.
• Compares responses at different stages of projects (announcement vs. operational) and contrasts FDI with Chinese foreign aid.

📈 Key Findings

• Announcement effects: The public becomes more optimistic about the economy and is more likely to view political leaders as competent for roughly one year after a Chinese FDI project is announced.
• Operational reversal: Once projects become operational, people living near those projects view the economy as worse than the counterfactual without FDI, and perceptions of leaders decline.
• Aid contrast: This pattern of initial optimism followed by later blame is not observed for Chinese foreign aid projects.

💡 Why It Matters

These results show that FDI can produce a short-lived political boost that turns into political risk if expectations go unmet. The findings have implications for how investors, host-country leaders, and donors should manage promises and communicate progress to avoid political backlash and to better align local expectations with realistic outcomes.