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Poor Health Predicts Support for Right-Wing Populists in Europe
Insights from the Field
health vulnerability
right-wing populism
ESS
political behavior
public health
European Politics
APSR
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6 Datasets
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Dataverse
Does Health Vulnerability Predict Voting for Right-wing Populist Parties in Europe? was authored by Nolan M. Kavanagh. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2021.

This work examines whether personal health vulnerability helps explain votes for right-wing populist parties across developed European democracies.

๐Ÿ“Š Data and approach: The analysis uses all waves of the European Social Survey (2002โ€“2020). Multivariate statistical models predict vote choice for right-wing populist parties from self-reported health while including established controls for:

  • cultural vulnerability measures
  • economic vulnerability measures (including income and self-reported economic insecurity)
  • satisfaction with personal life
  • satisfaction with the countryโ€™s health system
  • demographic controls (including gender) and attitudes toward immigrants

๐Ÿ“Œ Key findings:

  • Worse self-reported health is associated with a significantly higher likelihood of voting for right-wing populist parties.
  • This relationship remains statistically significant after accounting for cultural and economic vulnerability and for satisfaction with personal life and the national health system.
  • The influence of health on support for right-wing populist parties is larger than the effects of income and self-reported economic insecurity, but smaller than the effects of gender and attitudes about immigrants.
  • The pattern is observed across ESS waves covering 2002โ€“2020, indicating a consistent relationship over time.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Why it matters: These results broaden understanding of the social bases of right-wing populist support by identifying health vulnerability as an independent predictor. The findings imply that public-health conditions and policies may not only affect population well-being but also shape voting behavior and the broader political landscape.

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