Republicans Optimistic on Economic Mobility—But Equally Accurate?

This article examines whether Americans overestimate economic mobility.

Publicly surveying citizens and local officials, we measure the accuracy of their beliefs regarding both relative and absolute mobility. Republicans express more optimism than Democrats about poor children's chances to reach top income levels or surpass parents' earnings.

Differences in belief stem from varying perceptions on factors like race and family wealth—Democrats see them as more critical barriers.

However, partisan biases balance out: while one side is generally more optimistic, the other equally so. Accuracy remains low across party lines for both relative and absolute mobility claims.

Interestingly, survey accuracy does not significantly differ when questions focus on state/local versus national economic mobility.