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Misperceiving Polarization: A New Look at Political Affective Divides

Study Significance

The paper addresses affective polarization—the tendency of partisans to dislike and distrust the other party—by examining whether out-party animus is driven by misperceptions of how typical out-partisans think and behave.

Measuring Misperceptions and Partisan Animus

The authors assess partisans' perceptions of the ideological extremity and political engagement of typical out-party members and measure partisan animus toward the other party; when respondents learn the actual distribution of the other party's voters, their reported animus is reevaluated.

Comparing Perceptions to Reality

The study compares partisans' stereotypes of the typical out-partisan (stereotyped as engaged ideologues) with the actual characteristics of the typical out-party voter, and evaluates how animus changes after respondents learn the real distribution.

Main Findings

When partisans learned that the typical member of the other party is not the engaged ideological extreme but more representative of the broader party, partisan animus falls sharply; partisans do not hold strong animus toward the typical out-partisan.

Implications for Reducing Polarization

The results suggest that correcting misperceptions about the typical out-party voter can vitiate partisan animus and therefore may offer an antidote to affective polarization, while also complicating assumptions about civic behavior and polarization's drivers.

Journal of Politics
(Mis-)Estimating Affective Polarization was authored by James Druckman, Samara Klar, Yanna Krupnikov, Matthew Levendusky and John Ryan. It was published in JOP in 2022. Find on Google Scholar10.1086/715603
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