International demands for economic liberalization often create a compensation dynamic in autocracies.
- When faced with pressure, autocrats may promise reforms to appease international actors.
- This creates tension because economic liberalization threatens the interests of domestic elites who benefit from state control and patronage networks.
- These elites fear losing political power if deregulation undermines their clientelistic support base.
- To counter this threat, they push dictators to strengthen repression as compensation for potential losses.
This dynamic emerges only when autocrats perceive rebellion by elites as a genuine risk.
When the balance of power favors weak or unorganized elites who cannot threaten regime survival,
dictators can implement liberalization reforms without needing such compensatory measures.
- Statistical analyses across global autocracies demonstrate that economic liberalization correlates with increased repression under these conditions.
This finding highlights how seemingly reform-oriented international engagements might paradoxically reinforce authoritarian control.
