International demands for economic liberalization often create a compensation dynamic in autocracies.
• When faced with pressure, autocrats may promise reforms to appease international actors.
• This creates tension because economic liberalization threatens the interests of domestic elites who benefit from state control and patronage networks.
• These elites fear losing political power if deregulation undermines their clientelistic support base.
• To counter this threat, they push dictators to strengthen repression as compensation for potential losses.
This dynamic emerges only when autocrats perceive rebellion by elites as a genuine risk.
When the balance of power favors weak or unorganized elites who cannot threaten regime survival,
dictators can implement liberalization reforms without needing such compensatory measures.
• Statistical analyses across global autocracies demonstrate that economic liberalization correlates with increased repression under these conditions.
This finding highlights how seemingly reform-oriented international engagements might paradoxically reinforce authoritarian control.
| Compensating Autocratic Elites: How International Demands for Economic Liberalization Can Lead to More Repressive Dictatorships was authored by Jose Kaire. It was published by Oxford in ISQ in 2019. |
