This article examines how precolonial political institutions influence contemporary ethnic conflict. Drawing on original data from ex-British colonies, the research finds that Ethnic groups governed by centralized precolonial states are significantly more likely to experience armed conflict today. This outcome stems from colonial recruitment practices: these historically centralized groups were systematically underrepresented in colonial security forces, leading to post-independence exclusion and state opposition.

The findings challenge conventional understanding by revealing an unexpected pathway connecting past governance structures with present conflicts. Historical Drivers of Conflict: Precolonial centralization patterns set the stage for later tensions through recruitment bias.

* Underrecruitment in colonial security forces affected groups from centralized precolonial states.

* Overrepresentation benefited ethnic groups without precolonial centralization experience.