China's Mass Reactions to Bluster and Force in Crises: Rhetoric Matters, But Not Always

How do Chinese citizens respond to government rhetoric during international crises? This study uses two scenario-based survey experiments—one hypothetical and one that reminds respondents of recent events—to examine the impact of government statements and propaganda on approval for China's territorial and maritime policies.

Findings:

• Citizens disapprove more strongly when their government threatens force but does nothing to follow through
• Even vague, empty threats (bluster) receive public support
• Propaganda narratives linking present restraint with future success boost approval ratings among citizens
• Appeals to shared history of foreign injustice also increase approval for diplomatic approaches

These results suggest leaders in authoritarian states face audience costs even when not acting on threats they make. However, citizens appear responsive to specific rhetorical patterns: disapproval for empty force threats but support for bluster and narratives justifying restraint.