A New Understanding of Post-War Mistrust
Civil wars often leave deep scars, especially when governing requires trust among ex-combatants. This hurdle to peace has been understudied despite its critical role.
The Colombian Case Study
We examine the 2008 decision by Colombia's government to extradite top paramilitary leaders—a move that created a natural experiment.
Our focus: how this deal reversal affected trust in government among ex-paramilitaries, versus ex-guerrillas not part of the same peace agreement.
Our Findings
- Trust declined significantly among ex-paramilitaries after the extradition decision (estimates suggest roughly 50%).
- This erosion stemmed from normative reasons—believing their group had broken commitments—not instrumental ones like direct costs.
Why It Matters for Peacebuilding
This suggests government actions undermining peace agreements may damage trust even among those not directly involved, highlighting the fragility of post-conflict social contracts. Breaking pacts appears to trigger widespread disillusionment.
