Territorial boundary disputes sometimes appear insoluble. To explain this phenomenon, the author introduces a new model requiring three simultaneous elements to achieve resolution.
Theoretical Framework:
The "AAA Model" (Attention, Altered Preferences, Assistance) posits that territorial disputes clear only when specific conditions converge: attention must be drawn back to resolving them; government preferences toward territory must expand through influence factors; and third-party mediation is necessary.
Latin American Context:
Applying this framework specifically to Latin America's post-WWII era reveals the dispute resolution process operates through three distinct mechanisms:
- Militarization forces attention on boundaries
- Democratization broadens governmental interests in territorial outcomes
- Mediation provides crucial third-party facilitation
Research Design:
The analysis employs multiple methods, including extensive counterfactual comparisons that test what would have happened if one component of the model was absent.
Key Finding:
These analyses consistently demonstrate a strong relationship: disputes with all three AAA elements (attention, altered preferences, assistance) clear; those missing any single element do not resolve. This robust finding underscores how these political processes interact to produce durable peace.
