This paper investigates how exposure to refugees affects right-wing political attitudes. We focus on rural areas of East Germany—a region largely untouched by immigration yet politically conservative—during the European refugee crisis.
đź“Ť Data & Methods: Using electoral outcomes, individual surveys, and behavioral measures alongside a unique policy allocation process that followed strict rules.
This allowed us to analyze cause-effect relationships between refugee placement and voting patterns.
📊 Key Findings: Anti-immigrant sentiment was strong but did not change after refugees arrived. Overall right-wing support remained unaffected—no statistically significant shifts were observed across the population.
However, among individuals themselves, exposure appeared to moderate political views: both left- and right-leaning voters moved more centerward.
🔍 Why It Matters: These findings challenge earlier assumptions that refugee proximity inevitably increases right-wing voting. Instead, they support a 'sociotropic' model—where contact with foreigners influences attitudes within one's own group—but through the unexpected pathway of convergence rather than polarization.
