Recent scholarship suggests that African presidents often target co-ethnics with patronage, especially in non-democratic contexts. This study proposes a connection between presidential ethnic identity change and shifts in citizens' self-identification. Using survey data from fourteen African countries during periods of presidential transitions, the research demonstrates that when there is an ethnic transition (i.e., changing to a different ethnic group), the proportion of respondents identifying with that new ruling ethnic group increases significantly.
This shift proves more pronounced in highly autocratic regimes and occurs even when citizens perceive increased ethnic favoritism from leaders. Crucially, within-survey evidence from Zambia reveals this change is immediate upon announcement of ethnic switching. The findings also extend beyond Africa through comparison to early modern China, suggesting the phenomenon transcends geographical boundaries.
Key Findings:
- Ethnic Presidential transitions lead to an upwards shift in citizens' identification with the new ruling group 📈
- This effect strengthens with higher levels of autocracy ⚖️
- Perceived ethnic favoritism correlates strongly with switching behavior 👁️
