Dictators consolidate power to minimize threats from organized elites.
How do autocratic rulers manage elite resistance? New research shows personalization of authority pushes elites toward assassinations. At low levels, they topple leaders via 'insider coups'.
At middle stages, they resort to more complex 'regime change coups' as reshuffling becomes harder. When personalism peaks, even coordinated coups are too risky and rivals turn deadly.
This pattern emerges from analyzing 45,000 data points across all autocracies between 1946-2010. Quantitative evidence reveals three distinct elite resistance phases as authoritarian systems evolve:
• Low personalism: 'Insider coups' reshuffle leadership while maintaining power
• Middle personalism: Shift to more complex 'regime change coups'
• High personalism: Increasing reliance on assassinations for regime change
This finding fundamentally changes how we understand political survival in authoritarian regimes.
| Reshaping the Threat Environment: Personalism, Coups, and Assassinations was authored by John Chin, Abel Escribà-Folch, Wonjun Song and Joseph Wright. It was published by Sage in CPS in 2022. |
