Scholars have long puzzled over the stark differences in authoritarian longevity. This article examines all authoritarian regimes from 1900 to 2015 and finds a key pattern: revolutionary origins predict extraordinary durability.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, this research demonstrates that violent social revolutions paradoxically create stable autocracies. Examples include Russia (1917), China (1949), Cuba (1959), and Vietnam (1954).
Revolutionary regimes typically survive for over 50 years despite facing massive external pressure, chronic economic underperformance, and widespread policy failures.
The authors explain this durability through three key outcomes of revolutionary origins:
This institutional transformation, forced by extraordinary military threats during the revolution itself, accounts for their remarkable staying power.
| Social Revolution and Authoritarian Durability was authored by Adam E. Casey, Jean Lachapelle, Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way. It was published by Johns Hopkins in World Pol. in 2020. |
