Does electoral fraud strengthen authoritarian regimes? New survey experiment data from post-2016 Russian elections suggest otherwise.
Context and Method: Conducted after the 2016 elections, this study measured voter reactions to fraudulent acts by regime candidates.
Our findings reveal that voters withdraw support when fraud is revealed - especially strong supporters of authoritarian rule. Core regime supporters often believe pre-elections are free and fair; exposure to fraud significantly reduces their propensity to back the system they depend on.
Key Results:
- Fraudulent acts by ruling party candidates reduce voter support across all segments
- Strongest effect seen among core regime supporters
- Belief in free elections before revelation is prevalent among loyalists
This evidence shows electoral fraud undermines autocratic power, not just sparks protest. Because even its most dedicated base expects honest elections.
