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Economic Woes in 2020 Amplified Political Polarization
Insights from the Field
Economic Sentiment
U.S.
Crisis Elections
Punitive Voting
Social Media
Affective Polarization
American Politics
PS
1 datasets
Dataverse
Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment in 2020 was authored by Brad Lockerbie. It was published by Cambridge in PS in 2021.

### Key Insight

Negative economic outlooks during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly influenced political discourse and voter sentiment, particularly in the United States.

#### Economic Pessimism & Public Mood

The study analyzes how widespread economic anxiety shaped public attitudes toward political accountability in 2020. Using a mixed-method approach combining survey data with policy feedback analysis, it examines the relationship between declining economic optimism and increased punitive voting behavior.

#### Data & Methods

  • National surveys conducted during Q1-Q3 2020
  • Economic sentiment indices from major polling organizations
  • Textual analysis of campaign rhetoric across multiple states
  • Regression analyses linking economic perceptions to policy preferences

#### Key Findings

  • Economic pessimism was strongly correlated with increased voter hostility toward incumbents
  • Negative economic outlook drove punitive voting patterns in swing states
  • Partisan media amplified these negative sentiments disproportionately
  • Public blame directed varied by partisan identity despite similar economic realities

#### Implications for Political Science

This research demonstrates how economic perceptions serve as powerful predictors of political behavior during crisis elections. The findings offer important insights into the dynamics of voter sentiment and policy feedback effects in contemporary democratic systems, particularly relevant amid increasing polarization.

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