Election campaigns are often seen as a way candidates signal their future work in office. However, new research finds that who wins depends more on campaign intensity than how hard they will legislate afterward.
Data & Methods
This study uses evidence from the European Parliament and two national-level elections, employing regression analysis to examine pre-election campaigning against post-election policy-seeking behavior.
Key Findings
- Candidates who campaigned more vigorously were significantly more likely to win the election.
- Campaign intensity was unrelated to legislative effort or policy activity once elected.
Why It Matters
These results challenge the assumption that campaign behavior accurately predicts a representative's post-election commitment and performance, suggesting voters may be misled about future officeholders' workloads.
